One of the cleanest cycle oscillators: how far Bitcoin's market value is stretched above — or below — its on-chain cost basis, in standard deviations.
The MVRV Z-Score takes Bitcoin's market value (price × supply), subtracts its realised value (each coin valued at the price it last moved — the aggregate cost basis of the network), and divides by the standard deviation of market cap. The result is a normalised oscillator that strips out Bitcoin's exponential growth so cycles are comparable across a decade.
Because realised value represents what the average holder actually paid, the score answers a simple question: is the market, in aggregate, sitting on large unrealised profit or loss — and how extreme is it by historical standards?
Below 0 — price trades under the network's cost basis. These are rare, generational-bottom conditions where the average coin is underwater. 0 to ~2 — accumulation territory; the market is recovering but not stretched. ~2 to ~5 — fair-to-elevated value; a normal, healthy bull market. Above ~7 — the zone that coincided with the 2013, 2017 and 2021 cycle tops, where unrealised profit reached euphoric extremes.
Unlike price alone, the Z-Score is anchored to real on-chain behaviour and it has flagged every major top and bottom to date without needing to be re-tuned each cycle. That said, market structure evolves — spot ETFs and institutional custody may compress the extreme readings seen in earlier retail-driven cycles, so treat any single threshold as a guide, not a guarantee. For the broader picture, see the composite cycle-top indicators and the standard MVRV ratio.