One of the cleanest cycle oscillators: how far Bitcoin's market value is stretched above — or below — its on-chain cost basis, in standard deviations.
The MVRV Z-Score takes Bitcoin's market value (price × supply), subtracts its realised value (each coin valued at the price it last moved — the aggregate cost basis of the network), and divides by the standard deviation of market cap. The result is a normalised oscillator that strips out Bitcoin's exponential growth so cycles are comparable across a decade.
Because realised value represents what the average holder actually paid, the score answers a simple question: is the market, in aggregate, sitting on large unrealised profit or loss — and how extreme is it by historical standards?
Below 0 — price trades under the network's cost basis. These are rare, generational-bottom conditions where the average coin is underwater. 0 to ~2 — accumulation territory; the market is recovering but not stretched. ~2 to ~5 — fair value; a normal, healthy bull market. ~5 to ~7 — elevated; late-cycle behaviour building, historically the band where distribution begins. Above ~7 — the zone that coincided with the 2013, 2017 and 2021 cycle tops, where unrealised profit reached euphoric extremes.
Unlike price alone, the Z-Score is anchored to real on-chain behaviour and it has flagged every major top and bottom to date without needing to be re-tuned each cycle. That said, market structure evolves — spot ETFs and institutional custody may compress the extreme readings seen in earlier retail-driven cycles, so treat any single threshold as a guide, not a guarantee. For the broader picture, see the composite cycle-top indicators and the standard MVRV ratio.
Read more: Are We There Yet? What MVRV Z-Score Actually Measures — how realized cap works, what the bands mean, and why every cycle's peak reading has been lower than the last.
The MVRV Z-Score is Bitcoin's market capitalisation minus its realised capitalisation, divided by the standard deviation of market cap. Realised cap values each coin at the price it last moved, so the score measures how far the current price is stretched above or below the aggregate on-chain cost basis, scaled by volatility.
Historically, readings below 0 have marked generational bottoms (price below the market's cost basis), the 0–2 band is accumulation territory, and readings above roughly 7 have marked cycle tops. It is a probabilistic guide, not a precise timing signal.
It is computed textbook-style from Coin Metrics community data: (market cap − realised cap) ÷ the standard deviation of market cap across Bitcoin's full history. Realised cap is derived as market cap ÷ the live MVRV ratio.