How close is Bitcoin to a cycle peak? A live composite of ~30 historical bull-market-top indicators, plus the MVRV Z-Score, 200-week moving average and AHR999.
Every Bitcoin bull market ends, and over four cycles a recognisable set of on-chain and market signals has flashed extreme readings near the top. The problem is that no single indicator is reliable on its own — each has given false signals, and each has a different lead time. That's why serious analysts watch a basket of them together.
The headline number above is exactly that: of roughly 30 historical peak indicators, how many have currently crossed the threshold that has, in past cycles, coincided with a top. When only a handful have triggered, the market has historically had room left to run. When a large share trigger at once, it has lined up with cycle peaks. Treat it as a probability gauge, not a timing tool.
The MVRV Z-Score compares Bitcoin's market value to its realised value (the aggregate on-chain cost basis), scaled by volatility. It is one of the most dependable oscillators across cycles: historically, readings below 0 have marked generational bottoms, while readings above roughly 7 have marked cycle tops. It is shown live above, computed from Coin Metrics on-chain data.
Bitcoin has almost never closed a week below its 200-week moving average, making it a long-cycle price floor. How far price stretches above the 200-week MA is a rough measure of how overheated the market is — near the floor is deep value; several multiples above it has accompanied late-cycle euphoria.
AHR999 is an accumulation-timing index favoured by long-term dollar-cost-average investors. Below 0.45 flags deep-value bottom-fishing territory; 0.45–1.2 is the healthy accumulation band; above 1.2 means Bitcoin is getting expensive relative to its trend. It is a demand-side complement to the top-focused indicators.
The 2013, 2017 and 2021 peaks each saw MVRV Z-Score spike into the high single digits, price trade several multiples above the 200-week MA, and momentum models like the Pi Cycle Top cross. None of these are guarantees — market structure changes, and the arrival of spot ETFs and institutional flows may dampen the extreme readings seen in earlier retail-driven cycles. Use this page alongside the live on-chain valuation and institutional flow sections on the full dashboard for a fuller picture.