Price divided by its 200-day moving average — how far Bitcoin has run ahead of, or behind, its own trend.
The Mayer Multiple is one division: today's price ÷ the average closing price of the last 200 days. That is the whole formula. Trace Mayer popularised it as a way of asking a single question — is Bitcoin expensive or cheap relative to its own recent history — without reference to any model, valuation framework or forecast.
A multiple of 1.0 means price is exactly on its 200-day average. 1.5 means price is 50% above it. 0.7 means price sits 30% below the level it has averaged over roughly the last seven months.
The 200-day moving average is the most-watched medium-term trend line in every liquid market, which makes it self-reinforcing: enough participants act on it that it acquires some of the significance they assign to it. For Bitcoin it also covers a useful span — long enough to smooth out a violent week, short enough to respond within a cycle rather than lagging a whole one.
The multiple is descriptive, not predictive. It tells you where price is relative to its own average. It does not tell you whether that is justified, and it has no mechanism that pulls price back. Bitcoin has sat below 0.8 and fallen further; it has sat above 2 and doubled again.
The historical distribution is worth knowing because it gives the current reading some context: most of Bitcoin's life has been spent between roughly 0.8 and 1.5, which means both tails are genuinely unusual. The stat above shows what share of all daily closes sat above 1.0 — computed from the same series this page charts, not quoted from anywhere.
The Mayer Multiple is frequently confused with MVRV, and they are not the same. Mayer compares price to a moving average of price. MVRV compares market capitalisation to realised capitalisation, which is built from on-chain data about the price at which each coin last moved. Mayer is a trend measure computed from a chart; MVRV is a cost-basis measure computed from the ledger. They frequently disagree, and when they do, the disagreement is the interesting part.
Read more: The four-year cycle and every bear market measured.