Bitcoin Rainbow Chart

Live band position on the classic log-regression rainbow — computed, not eyeballed.

BITCOIN RAINBOW CHART POSITION · log-regression model
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Fire saleHODLMaximum bubble
BTC price
Model center (fair value)
Deviation from center
Days since genesis block
PRICE VS RAINBOW REGRESSION · monthly closes, log scale

Monthly BTCUSDT closes (Binance, since 2017) against the log-regression center line and the outer rainbow bands. Log scale: equal vertical steps are equal percentage moves.

Where Bitcoin sits on the rainbow, right now

The widget computes the classic logarithmic-regression rainbow model live: a curve fitted through Bitcoin's entire price history since the genesis block (January 3, 2009), with colored bands marking fixed deviations around it. Instead of squinting at a chart, you get the answer directly — which band today's price falls in, how far it sits from the model's center line, and what that zone has historically meant.

A heuristic, not an oracle

The rainbow chart earned its popularity by being roughly right across several cycles while staying disarmingly simple. But it is curve-fitting: the regression is recalculated as history grows, and a model with no fundamental inputs can break at any time. Its own creator calls it entertainment. Use it as one lens among many — the fee market, on-chain valuation (see our MVRV page) and cycle indicators tell complementary stories.

How the bands are computed

We compute price = 10^(5.84 × log10(days since the genesis block, January 3, 2009) − 17.01) — the same log-regression model the main BTCDash dashboard uses, in the spirit of the well-known Blockchaincenter chart. Today's price-to-model ratio maps to the familiar zone names, from Undervalued far below trend to Maximum Bubble far above it.

What it says about cycles

Every Bitcoin cycle so far has oscillated from the lower bands (despair) to the upper bands (euphoria) and back. The practical use isn't timing exact tops — it's context: knowing whether current sentiment is running hot or cold relative to a decade-plus growth path.

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