Live band position on the classic log-regression rainbow — computed, not eyeballed.
The widget computes the classic logarithmic-regression rainbow model live: a curve fitted through Bitcoin's monthly price history since the genesis block (January 3, 2009) — fitted in August 2026 and held fixed — with colored bands marking fixed deviations around it. Instead of squinting at a chart, you get the answer directly — which band today's price falls in, how far it sits from the model's center line, and what that zone has historically meant.
The rainbow chart earned its popularity by being roughly right across several cycles while staying disarmingly simple. But it is curve-fitting: the regression is recalculated as history grows, and a model with no fundamental inputs can break at any time. Its own creator calls it entertainment. Use it as one lens among many — the fee market, on-chain valuation (see our MVRV page) and cycle indicators tell complementary stories.
We compute price = 10^(5.6652 × log10(days since the genesis block, January 3, 2009) − 16.4283) — the same log-regression model the main BTCDash dashboard uses, in the spirit of the well-known Blockchaincenter chart. That is the ordinary logarithmic-regression form written in base 10; it is identical to the log10(price) = a·ln(days) + b version quoted elsewhere, with a = 2.4603 in natural-log notation. The coefficients come from an ordinary least-squares fit in log-log space over the 194 monthly closes from July 2010 onward (R² = 0.96), fitted in August 2026 and held fixed since — not refitted on every page load. A curve that refits continuously grades the same price differently depending on when it was fitted: at the 2015 low, a fit using only the data available then put price at 0.29× the centre where the full-history fit puts it at 0.68×. Today's price-to-model ratio maps to the zone names, from Fire sale far below trend to Maximum bubble far above it.
Every Bitcoin cycle so far has oscillated from the lower bands (despair) to the upper bands (euphoria) and back. The practical use isn't timing exact tops — it's context: knowing whether current sentiment is running hot or cold relative to a decade-plus growth path.
Read more: Every bear market, measured — how deep past drawdowns went and how long they lasted, which is the context the coloured bands compress into one picture.